Category: John’s Weekly Column
Goldman Sachs and Microsoft are in the Purloined Portfolio
Posted: October 13, 2026
October 12, 2026 – Young athletes try to copy the batting stance of Shohei Otani or the jump shot of Steph Curry. In the same way, investors may try to emulate the stock picks of an investor they admire.
It’s not a bad idea.
Once a year, I compile a Purloined Portfolio, consisting of five stocks lifted from the portfolios of five investors I respect.
Goldman Sachs
I’ll pluck Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) from Randall Eley’s holdings. Eley runs a $1.3 billion investment portfolio at Edgar Lomax Corp. in Alexandria, Virginia.
Goldman shares are down about 22% from their peak just three months ago. I have faith that they will revive and thrive. The stock has bounced back well from past swoons: It has quintupled in the past 10 years.
Also, there’s a revolving door between the Goldman executive suite and top government offices. Three recent Treasury Secretaries — Hank Paulson, Robert Rubin and Steven Mnuchin – came from Goldman.
Jon Corzine, another Goldman alumnus, was a U.S. Senator. Mark Carney, still another, is the Prime Minister of Canada.
Memory Chips
Bernard (Bernie) Horn runs the Polaris Global Value Fund and is a highly regarded international investor. His two largest holdings are Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. of South Korea, which are part of a global oligopoly in memory chips with Micron Technology Inc. (MU) of the United States.
There’s no easy way for most U.S. investors to buy Samsung shares. Since July, SK Hynix trades as an American Depositary Receipt (symbol SKHY).
There are exchange traded funds that have a big chunk of their assets in the South Korean pair, such as iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) and Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM).
Microsoft
Matrix Asset Advisors in New York City manages about $1.4 billion. David Katz is chief investment officer. One of his largest holdings is Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), whose Azure unit holds about 20% of the U.S. cloud computing market.
About two thirds of that market is held by the big three. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) holds about a 28% share via its AWS unit; Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) has about 15% through Google Cloud. Katz owns all three. My pick for the Purloined Portfolio is Microsoft, with its 40% net profit margin.
Transocean
Mohnish Pabrai runs the Dalal Street investment firm and, more recently, the Pabrai Wagons ETF (WAGN). One of his larger holdings is Transocean Ltd. (RIG), which is trading 45% below its 10-year high. Who needed ocean drilling when oil prices were bouncing between $55 and $70 a barrel?
But now the conflicts (plural) in the Middle East are showing the fragility of the world’s vital oil supplies, and oil is ricocheting between $90 and $110. Ocean drilling, Transocean’s specialty, may be in much higher demand in the next five years.
Berkshire Hathaway
I’ll close by bringing back a selection from last year — Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B), drawn from Scott Black’s portfolio. Black heads Delphi Management in Boston and is a member of the Barron’s Roundtable. Berkshire has lost some fans in the past year as its famed CEO Warren Buffett retired.
But there’s still a lot to recommend it. The stock sells for 13 times earnings in a market valued at a multiple of nearly 24. Debt is only 17% of the corporation’s net worth. Better still, Berkshire has $2.83 in cash for every dollar of debt.
Performance
In the past year (October 13, 2025 through October 9, 2026) my Purloined Portfolio returned 20.1%. That edged out the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index at 18.8%.
The two best performers were Mitsubishi UFG Financial Group Inc. (MUFG) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM). Each was up about 51%. My worst performer was L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX), down nearly 18%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
In 22 years, my Purloined Portfolios have averaged 13.5%, while the S&P 500 has averaged 11.9%. Eighteen of the 22 stolen-ideas lists have been profitable, and 12 have beaten the index.
My knowledge of what’s in whose portfolio comes from government filings, so it’s possible that any of the five managers might have sold the stocks I chose from their holdings.
Disclosure: I own Mitsubishi UFG Financial and Taiwan Semiconductor personally and for most of my clients. I own Berkshire Hathaway for most of my clients and Berkshire call options in a hedge fund I run.
I own Goldman Sachs and Microsoft for one or more clients, and my family owns some Microsoft shares.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Newton, Massachusetts. His firm of clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Cincinnati Financial and Versant Hit the Casualty List
Posted: October 06, 2026
October 5, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Some people like to care for injured birds. I like to pick battered stocks.
That’s the point of my quarterly Casualty List. It highlights stocks that have been beaten up in the quarter just concluded, and that I think have potential to recover and thrive.
In the third quarter, the S&P 500 showed a small gain, thanks to a resurgence by popular big technology stocks. But most stocks struggled. Among those that declined 10% or more, here are some of my favorites.
Cincinnati Financial
Down 13% in the third quarter, Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF) insures cars and homes nationwide. About 28% of its policies are in Ohio, Illinois and Indiana. In August, those states were hit by tornados and other high winds, causing an above-average volume of insurance claims.
Buying on bad news that’s real but temporary is often a good investment technique. Cincinnati Financial achieved a 17% return on stockholders’ equity in the past four quarters. (I consider 15% or above good.) The company has very little debt, and the stock sells for a modest multiple, eight times earnings.
Versant Media
Analysts aren’t sure what to make of Versant Media Group (VSNT), which was spun out of Comcast Corp. in January. Comcast bequeathed to Versant a collection of properties including CNBC, Fandango, Golf Channel, MSNBC, Oxygen, Rotten Tomatoes, and USA Network.
So far, only eight analysts cover it. Two say “buy,” five say “hold” and one says “underperform.” The stock fell 11% in the third quarter and sells for only six times earnings because many of its properties are cable properties, and people regard cable as a dying medium.
I think the analysts are too gloomy on this one.
Healthcare Services
Based in Bensalem, Pennsylvania, Healthcare Services Group Inc. (HCSG) provides housekeeping, dietary services, laundry and linen to hospitals, nursing homes, and retirement communities. It has shown a profit 29 years in a row.
The balance sheet is clean (debt is a mere 3% of equity), and the company earned 24% on stockholders’ equity in the past four quarters. The financial press ignores the company, and Wall Street doesn’t pay much attention.
The stock fell 16% in the third quarter. Part of that was simple profit-taking, since it had advanced about 150% in the 15 preceding months.
Taboola.com
Down a whopping 37% was Taboola.com Ltd. (TBLA), a New York City company that connects advertisers to publications, websites and television. Second-quarter revenue missed analysts’ estimates, and the company reduced its guidance.
After five years of red ink, Taboola.com turned profitable in 2025. This year, earnings are up, Analysts expect them to fall (but stay positive) in 2027, then resume growth in 2028 and beyond. At this writing, the stock sells for eight times earnings.
Dorman Products
I have two reasons to be biased in favor of Dorman Products Inc. (DORM). Its name resembles mine. And I owned it many years ago, with excellent results. That said, these shares look attractive to me after sliding 10% in the third quarter.
Based in Colmar, Pennsylvania, Dorman makes fasteners and replacement parts for cars – more than 1,000 parts in all. It benefits from the trend for people to keep their cars longer.
The shares sell for 13 times the earnings analysts expect in the next four quarters. That seems pretty reasonable for a company that grew earnings at an 18% annual pace over the past five years.
Performance
Beginning in June 2000, I’ve compiled 93 Casualty Lists (today’s is the 94th). One-year returns can be calculated for 90 lists, and they have averaged 15.7%. That beats the average for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same periods, which was 12.0%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Of the 90 columns, 57 were profitable and 42 beat the index.
My picks from a year ago, however, were bad. Four of my five selections declined, leading to an average loss of 14.6%. The S&P 500 was up 15.9%, including dividends. My worst recommendation was Amdocs Ltd. (DOX), a software provider to the communications and media industries. It declined almost 27%.
Also on the losing side were Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL), LKQ Corp. (LKQ) and Ingredion Inc. (INGR). My only gainer was Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN), and it wasn’t up by much, about 7%.
Disclosure: Katharine Davidge, my wife and a portfolio manager at my firm, owns Ingredion personally and for some clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts. He or his clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Five Cheap International Stocks, Starting with Volkswagen
Posted: September 29, 2026
September 28, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Currently, nine of the 25 stocks I own for most of my clients are based outside the United States.
Is that un-American? Not in my view. I like a little international diversification at most times. Now, with U.S. stocks on the pricey side and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, I think it makes more sense than usual.
Stocks in the U.S. market sell for about 23 times earnings (as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index). Here are five stocks based outside the United States that sell for less than 13 times earnings. Each has problems, but I believe the problems can be overcome.
Volkswagen
Five years ago, Germany’s Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) traded at more than $30 a share. Today it is barely above $8.
The company is cutting 100,000 jobs (about 15% of its total). To its east, China is making first-class electric cars at a very competitive price. To its west, the U.S. has erected stiff trade barriers.
As a result, Volkswagen shares sell for only 0.11 times the company’s per-share revenue. The ten-year average has been 0.29. The price/earnings ratio is a modest seven. Not many Wall Street analysts bother to cover VW anymore. But the three who do recommend it.
Chubb
From Switzerland comes Chubb Ltd. (CB), a large property & casualty insurance company that does business in more than 50 countries. Over the past decade, Chubb has increased its revenue more than 9% per year, and profits by more than 12% a year. About 60% of its revenue comes from North America.
According to government filings (which can sometimes be out of date), holders include several investors I respect, such as Scott Black, Jeremy Grantham and Joel Greenblatt. The stock sells for about 12 times earnings.
Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk AS of Denmark is the world leader in diabetes medications. In the past couple of years, it’s better known for its weight-loss drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic.
At present, Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) is ahead of Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss market. That’s why Novo shares have dropped to about $39 from more than $140 two years ago.
Over the past ten years, Novo Nordisk shares have usually sold for about 23 times earnings. At the present valuation of 10 times earnings, I think it’s a bargain.
Gold Fields
Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) is one of the ten largest gold mining companies in the world, and the largest in South Africa. Its stock has slipped about 7% this year, as gold has fallen following a big rise in 2025.
That leaves the shares at a multiple of eight times earnings – my kind of cheapskate territory.
I like gold-related investments now because gold usually keeps investors ahead of inflation. Gold also tends to hold up well when government deficits are big or international tensions are high. Both are true at the moment.
Central Japan Railway
In Japan, I like Central Japan Railway Co. (CJPRY), which operates the famed bullet trains that connect Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka (plus a few other cities). The stock has fallen 13% in the past year as investors worry about heavy expenses for its “maglev” project.
Maglev stands for magnetic levitation. If successful, that project will make future trains rise about four inches above the tracks and travel at speeds exceeding 300 miles an hour.
All of this will take more than a decade to achieve, and cost many billions of dollars. But the stock is extremely cheap – less than seven times earnings.
Performance
The last time I wrote about international stocks was in March 2025. Those recommendations advanced 28.0% in a year, while in the U.S., the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index returned 15.1%.
The best gainer was Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), up about 89%. Also strong was Total Energies SE (TTE), which returned 50%.
Hikari Tsushin (KHTGF) chipped in 31% and Hannover Rueck SE 3%. A total dud was JD.com, which declined close to 34%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Last year’s was the 20th one I’ve written about international stocks, beginning in 1998. Of the 20 columns, 16 were profitable, and nine beat the S&P 500. My average return on this series has been 15.1%, versus 14.2% for the S&P 500.
Disclosure: I own Taiwan Semiconductor, Total Energies and Central Japan railway personally and for most of my clients. I own Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly for one or more clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Newton, Massachusetts, nd a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Jim DiFlorio Wins My 2025-2026 Short Selling Contest
Posted: September 22, 2026
September 21, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) — Jim DiFlorio, a forensic scientist with the Pennsylvania state police, won my 23rd annual Short Sellers Don’t Have Horns contest. The idea of the contest is to pick a stock that will go down.
DiFlorio picked American Rebel Holdings Inc. (AREB), a Nashville, Tennessee company that makes gun safes and “concealed carry” products. When the contest began, on October 2, 2025, it sold for $20,940 a share. When the competition ended, on September 11, 2026, the price was 15 cents a share.
Rounding to the nearest hundredth, that’s a 100% decline – the short seller’s ideal.
DiFlorio says that he hasn’t tried short selling in real life, yet. Most investors never try it, because in a short sale your gain is limited to 100% while your potential loss is unlimited. (The reverse is true for regular, or “long” stock purchases.)
But DiFlorio, who had finished third in the contest a year ago, says he may try shorting with real money soon. “I seem to be able to find the big losers but not the big winners,” he says.
Danger Signals
In looking for a stock that will tank, DiFlorio has an eye out for three danger signs. One is a reverse split, in which a company lowers the number of shares each shareholder has, in order to raise the price per share.
Until recently, companies could use reverse splits to keep their stock price up and thus qualify for continued listing on Nasdaq (formerly, the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation system).
The second danger sign DiFlorio looks for is high debt. And third, he looks for stocks that are already “doing badly.”
Silver Medal
Peter DiFilippo, an accountant with Bayer Corp. in Pittsburgh, who won the contest in 2017, 2018 and 2020, grabbed second place this time.
DeFilippo picked Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFAI), a very small electric-car manufacturer. The stock fell 99.2%.
Electric cars were “a pretty crowded field,” DiFilippo observed when he entered the contest. “The tax credit for electric vehicles is ending, which may hurt any potential sales.”
Bronze Medal
Third place went to Glen Bowman, a history professor at Elizabeth City State University in North Carolina. His pick was Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND), which he characterized as “more like beyond hope.” Shares in the maker of vegetable-based meat substitutes fell 86.8% during the contest period.
“I am one of the few who actually does not dislike the product,” Bowman said, “but even I have stopped buying it.”
He noted that Beyond Meat had negative book value (corporate net worth per share), negative cash flow, and poor ratings from analysts.
Honorable Mention
Laurent Condon, a professional trader in Panazol, France, who won this contest in 2019, 2022 and 2024, had a result that was indeterminate.
Condon picked QMM Holdings Ltd, based in Hong Kong. It describes itself as a digital advertising company. To Condon, it was “another pump-and-dump Chinese stock that trades in US markets and should not.”
Shortly before the contest began, the Securities and Exchange Commission suspended trading in the stock. Condon expected trading to resume, but it never did. Arguably, he could be credited with a 100% return, or zero.
Condon notes that short selling has become a more dangerous game. “I have never seen so many frauds in the U.S. market, about 80% of them Chinese,” he says. Some stocks are manipulated and can jump hundreds of percent in a single day, wiping out a short seller.
Join the Contest
You can easily enter my 24th annual Short Sellers Don’t Have Horns contest.
Pick a U.S.-traded stock you think will decline significantly from the close of trading October 9, 2026 to the close on September 10, 2027. Entries must be postmarked or time-stamped by midnight October 9, 2026.
Email your entry to jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com or mail it to John Dorfman, Dorfman Value Investments, 24 Burnside Road, Newton MA 02461.
Please include:
- Your name
- Home city
- Your occupation
- Phone number, including night or weekend number
- Name and stock symbol of the stock you think will bomb.
- A brief statement of the reason you expect the stock to fall.
You are not required to sell the stock short with real money, but you may if you wish.
The first-place finisher gets a prize related to the word “short.” Past prizes have included music by pianist Bobby Short, a strawberry shortcake, and a book of short stories. Second and third place carry no prize but glory.
Disclosure: I have no positions, long or short, for myself or clients, in the stocks discussed today.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Newton, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
CEOs Buy Shares at Pfizer and Uber
Posted: September 15, 2026
September 14, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) –- Watching the trades of company chief executive officers (CEOs) is a fascinating sport. It can also be profitable.
Here are some notable CEO buys from August and September.
Pfizer
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock languishes at about $28. During the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021, when Pfizer heroically came up with a workable vaccine, the stock traded above $50. At today’s price, it has a tempting dividend yield of more than 6%.
Albert Bouria, Pfizer’s chairman and CEO, spent just over $1 million in August to add to his holdings, which now total a little over $12 million. It was his first open-market purchase since he became CEO in 2019. He had sold some shares in 2020 and in 2016.
I think that Bouria’s buy will work out. Yes, Pfizer, like most big drug companies, has patent-expiration problems. But it has a robust pipeline.
In the same month that Bouria made his big purchase, two directors also bought. Mortimer Buckley, who is also a director at Boeing Co. (BA), spent a little over $960,000 Ronald Blaylock, who is also a director at CarMax Inc. (KMX) and WR Berkley Corp. (WRB), a bit under $1 million.
Pfizer shares trade at 36 times the past four quarters’ earnings, but less than 10 times the earnings analysts expect for the next four quarters.
Uber
Just three years ago, ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) was a hot stock, selling for about 70 times earnings.
No more. These days it goes for about 16 times earnings. That is interesting, since Uber’s profit per share now is about ten times what it was three years ago. And Uber isn’t just about rides anymore; it’s about food and freight delivery too.
CEO Dara Khrosrowshahi, who took the reins at Uber from co-founder Travis Kalanick in 2017, spent just over $10 million to buy shares on September 10. According to Gurufocus.com, Khosrowshahi now owns some $98 million in Uber stock and has a net worth of at least $152 million.
Uber had just cut its work force by about 3,300 people, or 10%. Khosrowshahi had said that there were too many layers of management, and that he wanted a “leaner organization.”
Analysts are eager to hop aboard Uber. Of 52 Wall Street types who venture an opinion, 45 rate it a “buy.” Six give it a “hold” and one rates it “underperform.”
Uber shares are down about 5% this year, and 25% over the past three years. In my judgment, that mostly reflects overvaluation in the past, not serious problems now. Uber is nicely profitable, with an after-tax profit margin of 17%.
Kennametal
Based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Kennametal Inc. (KMT) makes tools to cut or shape metal, coatings and engineered components (mining equipment, for example).
CEO Sanjay Chowbey paid $203,700 on September 11 to add to his holdings, which now total over $7 million. According to Gurufocus.com, he has made four previous purchases, with an average return of 22.7%.
A couple of investment managers I respect, Jeremy Grantham and Joel Greenblatt, added to their Kennametal holdings in the second quarter.
This stock seems very attractive to me at less than seven times earnings and just under 1.0 times revenue.
Performance
This is the 79th time I’ve written about insider purchases and sales in this column. I’m able to calculate one-year results for 69 columns—all those written from 1999 through a year ago. The record is, frankly, mixed.
I did well in warning people away from certain stocks even though insiders were buying. Those stocks trailed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index bdy more than 22 percentage points on average.
I also did pretty well in warning about stocks with insider selling. Those lagged the index by 4.9 percentage points.
However, my “buy” recommendations based on insider buys have averaged only a 9% return, 2.3 percentage points behind the S&P.
There were also 15 cases where I noted insider buying, but made no comment or an ambiguous comment. Those stocks beat the index by more than 14 percentage points.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
My advice from a year ago also had mixed results. I recommended United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), which scored a 27.3% return, beating the index ad 17.1%. Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) returned 8.4% and First Citizens Bancshares Inc. (FCNCA) 14.2%.
However, I said that Eli Lilly shares were too expensive, “priced for near-perfection.” Yet they rose 50.1% on the strength of continue success in GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
Disclosure: Katharine Davidge, my wife and a portfolio manager at my firm, owns Lilly personally and for several of her clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts. He or his clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Newmont and Alphabet Boast Mile-Wide Profit Margins
Posted: September 08, 2026
September 7, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Most investors have a pet metric. For Louis Navellier, an investment manager and pundit based in Reno, Nevada, it’s fat profit margins.
A wide profit margin is a sign that a business is a step ahead of the competition – or perhaps several steps. High profits as a percentage of sales are a hallmark of innovation, or monopoly status, or both.
Once a year in this column, I highlight stocks with unusually big profit margins. Here are five that I recommend.
Newmont
It’s a great time for gold miners. Big government budget deficits and fierce international tensions have investors scrambling for the presumptive safety of gold. One ounce was worth $4,493 on September 4. That’s down from a peak above $5,000, but more than double the average price in 2023.
At today’s precious-metals prices, mines that were uneconomic a few years ago are…well, gold mines now.
Based in Denver, Colorado, Newmont Corp. (NEM) is the world’s largest gold mining company, active in North America, South America, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. Its profit margin lately has been 55% before taxes and 33% after.
The stock sells for 16 times earnings. Twenty-seven analysts cover it, 24 of whom recommend it. I usually shy away from that kind of near-unanimity. But in this case, I think the analysts are right.
Alphabet
Alphabet inc. (GOOGL) is the only member of the Magnificent Seven that I own personally. Despite some recent departures of talent from its Deep Mind unit, I believe that Alphabet is a world leader in artificial intelligence. It also owns Google, You Tube and Waymo.
Alphabet’s growth has been both spectacular and consistent. Over the past decade, its revenue has grown just over 20% a year. Last year? The figure was 20.7%.
At 17 times earnings, the stock is priced more attractively than most of the ultra-popular stocks in the Magnificent Seven.
International Seaways
Nowadays, if you hear about oil tankers, it’s usually in the context of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz. But the world has many oil routes, and some tanker companies, such as International Seaways Inc. (INSW), are very profitable.
International Seaways, headquartered in New York City, had a pre-tax margin of more than 55% in the past four quarters. (It had some tax credits, so the after-tax margin was even higher.)
This is far from a safe bet: The company had six straight loss years through 2021. Since then, however, its net margin has never been below 36%. Only eight analysts follow the stock. Seven recommend it.
United Therapeutics
I’ll repeat my recommendation of United Therapeutics Corp. (UTHR) from a year ago. It has an after-tax margin of more than 41%. Based in Silver Spring, Maryland, it specializes in drugs for pulmonary hypertension, but is also delving into some other areas.
One thing I love about the company is that it carries no debt. The stock sells for 17 times earnings, not too expensive considering the company’s profitability. Growth, however, has been moderate. Over the past decade, both sales and earnings have grown at a pace between 6% and 7% a year.
Nvidia
Navellier calls Nvidia’s margins so good they are “ridiculous.” Since Nvidia boasts a gross margin of 65% and an after-tax margin of 33%, that might be an understatement.
With a market value of $5.6 trillion, Nvidia naturally has a huge Wall Street following. No fewer than 64 analysts follow it, and 61 of them recommend it. I like the company but don’t own the stock personally. I’m a cheapskate, and Nvidia shares are usually expensive.
However, now that the price/earnings ratio has dipped below 30, I’m getting tempted.
Performance
Over the years, I’ve written 16 columns on stocks with fat profit margins. (This is the 17th.) The average one-year return on my recommendations in this series has been 18.8%.
That compares favorably with the 16.1% average for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same periods.
Last year’s crop of recommendations did quite well, with a 56.6% average gain, versus 20.2% for the index. The biggest gainer was Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), up 182%.
Another big contributor was Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), which advanced almost 84%. The one flop was Adobe Inc., down 26%. In the middle were United Therapeutics, up 24%, and Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM), up 19%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Disclosure: I own Alphabet personally and for almost all of my clients. I own Anglogold Ashanti for most of my clients, and some of my family members own it. I own Nvidia for a few clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
HF Sinclair and Arrow are Value Stocks on the Move
Posted: September 01, 2026
August 31, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – A lot of value stocks have come to life this year.
While it’s too soon to declare a full-scale value revival, value investors are having more fun lately. As a value investor myself, I’m hoping the trend lasts.
Here are five value stocks that are on the move. Each of them is up at least 15% this year. And they sell for modest multiples – less than two times revenue, less than two times book value (corporate net worth per share) and less than 15 times earnings.
HF Sinclair
You’ve probably seen gas stations with a dinosaur logo. They sell gasoline refined by HF Sinclair Corp. (DINO), a refiner and pipeline company. The stations themselves aren’t owned by Sinclair Oil, just licensed to use the name.
Refiners are having a field day lately, partly because of a worldwide gasoline shortage caused by the war with Iran. The question is how long the good times will roll. I think they will roll for another year or more.
Analysts are more pessimistic than I am. Of 17 analysts who follow the stock, only seven recommend it. The consensus forecast is that the stock will fall 11% from its current level of just below $100. This doesn’t bother me, as I often prefer unpopular stocks.
Sinclair has suffered two losses in the past ten years. But in the past four quarters it has seen its profits leap more than 500% on a 10% increase in revenue. The stock has doubled this year, but still sells for less than ten times earnings.
Arrow Electronics
Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW), based in Centennial, Colorado, is up about 80% this year and sells for 13 times earnings. It is a broad-scale wholesaler of electronic parts. No single customer accounts for more than 2% of its sales, which totaled close to $36 billion in the past four quarters.
Over the past decade, Arrow has grown its sales by 10% a year, and earnings by roughly the same. In the past year, sales and earnings have accelerated well beyond that pace, goosed by demand from the artificial-intelligence build-out.
Sirius XM
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI), out of New York City, runs a subscription satellite radio service. It also owns Pandora, which offers music streaming. The stock has struggled over the past five to ten years, but has bounced 39% this year.
Wall Street analysts pretty much hate Sirius XM. Only four out of 16 analysts recommend it. Eight slap “hold” ratings on it, and four rate it “underperform” or “sell.”
That seems harsh for a company that has shown a profit in nine of the past ten years. The stock sells for 11 times trailing earnings and less than 10 times analysts’ estimate of earnings this year.
Greif Inc.
Originally a maker of wooden barrels, Greif Inc. (GEF class B) of Delaware, Ohio, now makes all sorts of industrial packaging products. Sales have grown slowly, and were down in the past year. But the company has consistently been profitable, and has paid dividends each year for more than 50 years.
Brokerage houses barely bother to cover Greif. But some big-name investors own the stock. This year they have included Renaissance Technologies and hedge-fund manager Steven Cohen (who also owns the New York Mets).
Ziff Davis
Formerly a publisher of trade magazines, Ziff Davis Inc. (ZD) is now a digital media company. It owns more than 40 brands, including CNET, ExtremeTech, LifeHacker, Mashable, PCMag and Popular Science.
The shares have risen 64% this year and the stock sells for about 11 times analysts’ estimate of this year’s earnings.
Performance
Beginning in 2000, I’ve written 49 columns on stocks that show both value and momentum. One-year returns can be calculated for 47 columns, and they have averaged 13.46%.
That compares favorably to 11.39% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same 47 periods.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
My recommendations were profitable in 32 of the 47 columns, and beat the index 24 times.
The picks from a year ago showed a 16.9% return but trailed the S&P, which returned 20.8% including dividends. The standout pick was Newmont Corp. (NEM), up about 74%. The biggest laggard was Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), down close to 29%.
Disclosure: I own Cal-Maine Foods personally and for most of my clients. While it did badly in the past year, it’s up substantially from cost.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Value and Growth Coexist in These Five Stocks
Posted: August 25, 2026
August 24, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – “There is no such thing as growth stocks and value stocks the way Wall Street portrays them, as opposing asset classes,” Warren Buffett has said.
Buffett is considered by many people the world’s greatest living investor, and as usual, he has a point. No growth investor wants to pay a super-high price. No value investor wants to buy a melting ice cube.
Each year I highlight a few stocks that I think have both growth and value characteristics.
For this purpose, I use simple definitions. A value stock is a stock whose price is no more than 15 times the company’s per-share profits. A growth stock is one whose profits have increased at a 15% annual pace or better in the past five years.
Here are five stocks that I believe can accurately be described as incorporating both growth and value.
Progressive
The home and car insurer Progressive Corp. (PGR) has increased its earnings at more than a 24% clip in the past five years, yet its stock sells for only 11 times earnings.
Progressive was early among insurers in using technology (“telematics”) to check (among other things) how often drivers brake suddenly, or accelerate rapidly. The company also has an edge, in my view, in its advertising, which is often wry, quirky and funny.
EOG Resources
A remnant of the Enron Corp. empire, EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) jumped ship two years before Enron went bankrupt amid an accounting scandal. Its initials originally stood for Enron Oil and Gas.
Despite its parentage, EOG has a good reputation for accurate and conservative accounting. It has increased its earnings more than 34% a year in the past five years. The stock sells for about 12 times earnings.
Axos Financial
Axos Financial Inc. (AX), based in Las Vegas, Nevada, is a banking company that does business nationwide, entirely over the Internet. The stock has more than doubled in the past three years, but still sells for about 11 times earnings.
In June 2024, Hindenburg Research, a short-selling firm, charged that Axos has lax underwriting standards for loans, and is overly exposed to commercial real estate. Since then, the stock has risen, suggesting that investors don’t believe those charges.
The five-year earnings growth rate is a little over 19%. Only seven analysts follow Axos. Six of them recommend it.
Deckers
You may not know the name Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) but you may be familiar with its two shoe brands, Ugg and Hoka. Shoes are an unglamorous business, and Deckers shares sell for 13 times earnings even though the five-year earnings growth rate is 28%.
Analysts are evenly split between “buy” and “hold” ratings, but the average analysts’ one-year price target is about 33% above current quotes. Profitability measures are well above those for most shoe makers.
Green Brick
Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn is the board chairman at Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK), a home builder. Like many home builders, it had a tough time in the past four quarters, with profits falling 15% on a 4% revenue decline.
However, it’s five-year profit growth rate is above 26%. And the stock is attractively priced at 11 times earnings. Unlike many of its competitors who seek to be “land light,” Green Brick often owns the lots on which it builds.
Performance
Over the years, I’ve written 19 previous columns on stocks that combine growth and value. The average 12-month gain on my selections have been 18.9%.
That beats the average return of 12.6% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same periods.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
In 19 tries, my picks in this series have been profitable 14 times and beaten the S&P 13 times.
My selections from last summer advanced 40.3%, outdistancing the S&P’s total return of 19.7%. Little Eaco Corp. (EACO), which distributes electronic components and fasteners, was the best gainer, up about 63%.
My only pick from a year ago that didn’t beat the index was Pulte Group Inc., a homebuilder, which returned about 17%. Diamondback Energy Inc. chipped in 42%, and Crocs Inc. 31%. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc. was acquired by Angelini Pharma for a 49% gain.
Disclosure: I own Diamondback Energy Inc. for most of my clients and Progressive shares for some clients. I don’t, at present, own them personally.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Marathon Petroleum, Kraft Heinz Look Good on Cash Flow
Posted: August 18, 2026
August 17, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Companies’ upbeat press conferences can sometimes fool you. And reported earnings can sometimes be manipulated. One way to counteract those problems is to look at cash flow.
Cash flow is a measure of the actual cash flowing through a business. It differs from reported earnings by ignoring non-cash items such as depreciation and amortization.
“Ignoring,” in this case, means adding those items back to reported profits. Cash-flow analysts may also add back taxes and interest payments. The theory is that these things aren’t an intrinsic part of the business’s operation.
Personally, I believe that GAAP earnings – that is, earnings according to generally accepted accounting principles – are the best measure available. But it’s helpful to view companies through more than one lens.
Each year, I devote a column to companies that look good based on the ratio of their stock price to cash flow. Here are five that look appealing to me now.
Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC), based in Findlay, Ohio, operates 13 refineries, some pipelines, and more than 7,000 gas stations. In the past year, its profits have quadrupled and its stock has doubled. The stock is trading for six times cash flow.
Of course, the current worldwide shortage of gasoline won’t last forever. War has damaged refineries in Russia and the Middle East. No knows how the two wars will play out. For now, U.S. refiners are exporting a lot of gasoline and diesel fuel while continuing to supply the American market.
Kraft Heinz
Struggling in recent years, Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) sells for only six times cash flow, and less than book value (corporate net worth per share). Profits have deteriorated as consumers put more emphasis on health and less on convenience.
But the Pittsburgh-based company still enjoys a big market for ketchup, macaroni and cheese, and dozens of other items. The company could use a tune-up. While you wait for it, you can enjoy a substantial dividend, with a dividend yield of more than 6%.
Met Life
While tech stocks have garnered all the headlines (and most of investors’ enthusiasm), MetLife Inc. has quietly gained more than 21% this year. It markets life insurance, annuities, dental insurance, and accident insurance.
More than a third of its revenue comes from group plans. Close to a quarter comes from Latin America and Asia. Analysts’ views are — as is often the case — paradoxical. Fourteen out of 20 analysts recommend it, yet their average one-year price target is only 2% above the stock’s present level.
MetLife shares change hands at about four times cash flow.
Miller Industries
Close to debt-free is Miller Industries Inc. (MLR), based in Ooltewah, Tennessee. It makes car carriers and tow trucks. If you think that’s not a growth industry, you’re right. And the past year was poor.
Yet longer-term, Miller’s record shines. It has shown a profit in 28 of the past 30 years. Its operating margin, though slim, has expanded recently. Only two Wall Street analysts deign to follow this stock, which languishes at five times cash flow.
Capital One
For a third year in a row, I recommend Capital One Financial Corp. (COF). It rose 52% in the first outing, and about 2% in the past year. Based in McLean, Virginia, this bank is one of the nation’s largest issuers of credit cards, and gets a big chunk of its revenue from credit-card interest.
Known for its café-like branch offices and for its catchy slogan (What’s in Your Wallet?), Capital One earned 1.57% on its assets in the past four quarters. I consider anything over 1.0% good. The main risk is a rise in credit-card delinquencies and defaults. The stock sells for about four times cash flow.
Performance
I’ve written 22 previous columns about stocks with favorable price-to-cash-flow ratios. The average one-year gain on my selections has been 14.4%. That beats the 11.1% average for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same 22 periods.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Of the 22 columns, 16 showed a profit and 11 beat the S&P 500.
My column a year ago showed a 9.9% gain, mainly because of a 49% gain in Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR). But that was far behind the S&P 500, which was up 21.7%. Two of my five picks declined, including a 16% loss in Comcast Corp. (MCCSA).
Disclosure: I own MetLife shares for one of my clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com. He or his clients may own or trade stocks discussed in this column.
If Ben Graham Were Alive, Would He Buy Seaboard and SandRidge?
Posted: August 11, 2026
August 10, 2026 — (Maple Hill Syndicate) – One of my investment heroes is Benjamin Graham who lived from 1894 to 1976. A professor, hedge fund manager and author, Graham is widely considered the father of value investing.
Graham believed that buying bargain-priced stocks with good balance sheets provides a “margin of safety” that helps to enhance gains and reduce losses. Each year at about this time, I try to identify a few stocks that I believe Graham might buy if he were alive today.
Graham’s Method
Graham’s stock-selection methods are set out in his books Security Analysis (1934, with David Dodd) and The Intelligent Investor (1949). For this column, I use a simplified version of his criteria. A “Graham stock” must have:
- Debt no more than 50% of corporate net worth.
- A stock price that is 12 times earnings or less.
- A stock price that is less than a company’ book value (corporate net worth per share).
After a long stretch of market gains, you’d think that very few stocks would qualify. But there are still a few Graham-style bargains around. Here are five of them.
Seaboard
The Bresky family has packed a weird variety of businesses into Seaboard Corp. (SEB), which the family continues to control. Seaboard raises pigs, processes pork and grain, produces biofuel, trades commodities and does shipping between the U.S. and Latin America.
In addition, it grows sugar in Argentina, provides electricity in the Dominican Republic, and owns part of Butterball turkey. Over the past decade, this oddball conglomerate has achieved sales and earnings growth exceeding 9% a year. The stock sells for about six times earnings.
Bank OZK
Back on my Graham list for a third year in a row is Bank OZK (OZK), a regional bank with headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas. The stock gained 24% and 10% in its two previous outings on the list. I think that George Gleason, the bank’s CEO, is unusually articulate and candid.
The main rap against this bank is that it’s overly dependent on commercial real estate lending. Nonperforming loans now stand at about $300 million, up a lot from the level a year ago. I think that Gleason, and the bank, will pull through. The stock trades for about eight times earnings.
SandRidge Energy
Producing oil and natural gas in Oklahoma and Kansas is the business of SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD). It has a spotty earnings history, with profits in only six of the past 10 years.
Last year was a good one, with profits up 52% on nearly a 20% increase in revenue. I think the good times will roll on for a while. The U.S. petroleum reserve has been nearly exhausted during the war with Iran. Replenishing it and meeting the nation’s needs will keep energy companies busy.
This one trades for about six times earnings.
White Mountains
Hanover, New Hampshire is the executive office of White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM), though it’s incorporated in Bermuda. It is involved in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, municipal bond insurance, and several other financial-services businesses.
White Mountains has an uneven history of sales and profits, and is largely neglected by Wall Street. The company’s return on equity lately has been about 21% (I consider 15% good.) The stock goes for a mere five times earnings.
Princeton Bancorp
Princeton Bancorp Inc. (BPRN) is a smallish bank based in Princeton, New Jersey. I like to see banks earn a 1.0% return on assets or better. Princeton Bancorp has done that in six of the past 11 years.
The stock current provides a dividend yield of 3.3%, and the company has been increasing the dividend, which I view as a good sign. The price/earnings ratio is 11.
Performance
For 23 years, I have been trying to channel the spirit of Ben Graham, to guess what stocks he might pick if he were still alive. My picks in this series have averaged a 15.0% return, versus 12.7% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.
My selections have been profitable in 16 of the 23 years, and beaten the index in 14 years.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
My choices from a year ago posted a 14.4% return, which lagged behind the 18.9% return for the S&P 500. Mosaic Co. (MOS), a fertilizer company, hurt the results, suffering a loss of nearly 30%. Seadrill Ltd. (SDRL) was the best performer with a 57% return.
Disclosure: I don’t currently own the stocks mentioned today, personally or for clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.