Category: John’s Weekly Column
Value and Growth Coexist in These Five Stocks
Posted: August 25, 2026
August 24, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – “There is no such thing as growth stocks and value stocks the way Wall Street portrays them, as opposing asset classes,” Warren Buffett has said.
Buffett is considered by many people the world’s greatest living investor, and as usual, he has a point. No growth investor wants to pay a super-high price. No value investor wants to buy a melting ice cube.
Each year I highlight a few stocks that I think have both growth and value characteristics.
For this purpose, I use simple definitions. A value stock is a stock whose price is no more than 15 times the company’s per-share profits. A growth stock is one whose profits have increased at a 15% annual pace or better in the past five years.
Here are five stocks that I believe can accurately be described as incorporating both growth and value.
Progressive
The home and car insurer Progressive Corp. (PGR) has increased its earnings at more than a 24% clip in the past five years, yet its stock sells for only 11 times earnings.
Progressive was early among insurers in using technology (“telematics”) to check (among other things) how often drivers brake suddenly, or accelerate rapidly. The company also has an edge, in my view, in its advertising, which is often wry, quirky and funny.
EOG Resources
A remnant of the Enron Corp. empire, EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) jumped ship two years before Enron went bankrupt amid an accounting scandal. Its initials originally stood for Enron Oil and Gas.
Despite its parentage, EOG has a good reputation for accurate and conservative accounting. It has increased its earnings more than 34% a year in the past five years. The stock sells for about 12 times earnings.
Axos Financial
Axos Financial Inc. (AX), based in Las Vegas, Nevada, is a banking company that does business nationwide, entirely over the Internet. The stock has more than doubled in the past three years, but still sells for about 11 times earnings.
In June 2024, Hindenburg Research, a short-selling firm, charged that Axos has lax underwriting standards for loans, and is overly exposed to commercial real estate. Since then, the stock has risen, suggesting that investors don’t believe those charges.
The five-year earnings growth rate is a little over 19%. Only seven analysts follow Axos. Six of them recommend it.
Deckers
You may not know the name Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) but you may be familiar with its two shoe brands, Ugg and Hoka. Shoes are an unglamorous business, and Deckers shares sell for 13 times earnings even though the five-year earnings growth rate is 28%.
Analysts are evenly split between “buy” and “hold” ratings, but the average analysts’ one-year price target is about 33% above current quotes. Profitability measures are well above those for most shoe makers.
Green Brick
Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn is the board chairman at Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK), a home builder. Like many home builders, it had a tough time in the past four quarters, with profits falling 15% on a 4% revenue decline.
However, it’s five-year profit growth rate is above 26%. And the stock is attractively priced at 11 times earnings. Unlike many of its competitors who seek to be “land light,” Green Brick often owns the lots on which it builds.
Performance
Over the years, I’ve written 19 previous columns on stocks that combine growth and value. The average 12-month gain on my selections have been 18.9%.
That beats the average return of 12.6% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same periods.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
In 19 tries, my picks in this series have been profitable 14 times and beaten the S&P 13 times.
My selections from last summer advanced 40.3%, outdistancing the S&P’s total return of 19.7%. Little Eaco Corp. (EACO), which distributes electronic components and fasteners, was the best gainer, up about 63%.
My only pick from a year ago that didn’t beat the index was Pulte Group Inc., a homebuilder, which returned about 17%. Diamondback Energy Inc. chipped in 42%, and Crocs Inc. 31%. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc. was acquired by Angelini Pharma for a 49% gain.
Disclosure: I own Diamondback Energy Inc. for most of my clients and Progressive shares for some clients. I don’t, at present, own them personally.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Marathon Petroleum, Kraft Heinz Look Good on Cash Flow
Posted: August 18, 2026
August 17, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Companies’ upbeat press conferences can sometimes fool you. And reported earnings can sometimes be manipulated. One way to counteract those problems is to look at cash flow.
Cash flow is a measure of the actual cash flowing through a business. It differs from reported earnings by ignoring non-cash items such as depreciation and amortization.
“Ignoring,” in this case, means adding those items back to reported profits. Cash-flow analysts may also add back taxes and interest payments. The theory is that these things aren’t an intrinsic part of the business’s operation.
Personally, I believe that GAAP earnings – that is, earnings according to generally accepted accounting principles – are the best measure available. But it’s helpful to view companies through more than one lens.
Each year, I devote a column to companies that look good based on the ratio of their stock price to cash flow. Here are five that look appealing to me now.
Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC), based in Findlay, Ohio, operates 13 refineries, some pipelines, and more than 7,000 gas stations. In the past year, its profits have quadrupled and its stock has doubled. The stock is trading for six times cash flow.
Of course, the current worldwide shortage of gasoline won’t last forever. War has damaged refineries in Russia and the Middle East. No knows how the two wars will play out. For now, U.S. refiners are exporting a lot of gasoline and diesel fuel while continuing to supply the American market.
Kraft Heinz
Struggling in recent years, Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) sells for only six times cash flow, and less than book value (corporate net worth per share). Profits have deteriorated as consumers put more emphasis on health and less on convenience.
But the Pittsburgh-based company still enjoys a big market for ketchup, macaroni and cheese, and dozens of other items. The company could use a tune-up. While you wait for it, you can enjoy a substantial dividend, with a dividend yield of more than 6%.
Met Life
While tech stocks have garnered all the headlines (and most of investors’ enthusiasm), MetLife Inc. has quietly gained more than 21% this year. It markets life insurance, annuities, dental insurance, and accident insurance.
More than a third of its revenue comes from group plans. Close to a quarter comes from Latin America and Asia. Analysts’ views are — as is often the case — paradoxical. Fourteen out of 20 analysts recommend it, yet their average one-year price target is only 2% above the stock’s present level.
MetLife shares change hands at about four times cash flow.
Miller Industries
Close to debt-free is Miller Industries Inc. (MLR), based in Ooltewah, Tennessee. It makes car carriers and tow trucks. If you think that’s not a growth industry, you’re right. And the past year was poor.
Yet longer-term, Miller’s record shines. It has shown a profit in 28 of the past 30 years. Its operating margin, though slim, has expanded recently. Only two Wall Street analysts deign to follow this stock, which languishes at five times cash flow.
Capital One
For a third year in a row, I recommend Capital One Financial Corp. (COF). It rose 52% in the first outing, and about 2% in the past year. Based in McLean, Virginia, this bank is one of the nation’s largest issuers of credit cards, and gets a big chunk of its revenue from credit-card interest.
Known for its café-like branch offices and for its catchy slogan (What’s in Your Wallet?), Capital One earned 1.57% on its assets in the past four quarters. I consider anything over 1.0% good. The main risk is a rise in credit-card delinquencies and defaults. The stock sells for about four times cash flow.
Performance
I’ve written 22 previous columns about stocks with favorable price-to-cash-flow ratios. The average one-year gain on my selections has been 14.4%. That beats the 11.1% average for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index over the same 22 periods.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Of the 22 columns, 16 showed a profit and 11 beat the S&P 500.
My column a year ago showed a 9.9% gain, mainly because of a 49% gain in Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR). But that was far behind the S&P 500, which was up 21.7%. Two of my five picks declined, including a 16% loss in Comcast Corp. (MCCSA).
Disclosure: I own MetLife shares for one of my clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com. He or his clients may own or trade stocks discussed in this column.
If Ben Graham Were Alive, Would He Buy Seaboard and SandRidge?
Posted: August 11, 2026
August 10, 2026 — (Maple Hill Syndicate) – One of my investment heroes is Benjamin Graham who lived from 1894 to 1976. A professor, hedge fund manager and author, Graham is widely considered the father of value investing.
Graham believed that buying bargain-priced stocks with good balance sheets provides a “margin of safety” that helps to enhance gains and reduce losses. Each year at about this time, I try to identify a few stocks that I believe Graham might buy if he were alive today.
Graham’s Method
Graham’s stock-selection methods are set out in his books Security Analysis (1934, with David Dodd) and The Intelligent Investor (1949). For this column, I use a simplified version of his criteria. A “Graham stock” must have:
- Debt no more than 50% of corporate net worth.
- A stock price that is 12 times earnings or less.
- A stock price that is less than a company’ book value (corporate net worth per share).
After a long stretch of market gains, you’d think that very few stocks would qualify. But there are still a few Graham-style bargains around. Here are five of them.
Seaboard
The Bresky family has packed a weird variety of businesses into Seaboard Corp. (SEB), which the family continues to control. Seaboard raises pigs, processes pork and grain, produces biofuel, trades commodities and does shipping between the U.S. and Latin America.
In addition, it grows sugar in Argentina, provides electricity in the Dominican Republic, and owns part of Butterball turkey. Over the past decade, this oddball conglomerate has achieved sales and earnings growth exceeding 9% a year. The stock sells for about six times earnings.
Bank OZK
Back on my Graham list for a third year in a row is Bank OZK (OZK), a regional bank with headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas. The stock gained 24% and 10% in its two previous outings on the list. I think that George Gleason, the bank’s CEO, is unusually articulate and candid.
The main rap against this bank is that it’s overly dependent on commercial real estate lending. Nonperforming loans now stand at about $300 million, up a lot from the level a year ago. I think that Gleason, and the bank, will pull through. The stock trades for about eight times earnings.
SandRidge Energy
Producing oil and natural gas in Oklahoma and Kansas is the business of SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD). It has a spotty earnings history, with profits in only six of the past 10 years.
Last year was a good one, with profits up 52% on nearly a 20% increase in revenue. I think the good times will roll on for a while. The U.S. petroleum reserve has been nearly exhausted during the war with Iran. Replenishing it and meeting the nation’s needs will keep energy companies busy.
This one trades for about six times earnings.
White Mountains
Hanover, New Hampshire is the executive office of White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM), though it’s incorporated in Bermuda. It is involved in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, municipal bond insurance, and several other financial-services businesses.
White Mountains has an uneven history of sales and profits, and is largely neglected by Wall Street. The company’s return on equity lately has been about 21% (I consider 15% good.) The stock goes for a mere five times earnings.
Princeton Bancorp
Princeton Bancorp Inc. (BPRN) is a smallish bank based in Princeton, New Jersey. I like to see banks earn a 1.0% return on assets or better. Princeton Bancorp has done that in six of the past 11 years.
The stock current provides a dividend yield of 3.3%, and the company has been increasing the dividend, which I view as a good sign. The price/earnings ratio is 11.
Performance
For 23 years, I have been trying to channel the spirit of Ben Graham, to guess what stocks he might pick if he were still alive. My picks in this series have averaged a 15.0% return, versus 12.7% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.
My selections have been profitable in 16 of the 23 years, and beaten the index in 14 years.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
My choices from a year ago posted a 14.4% return, which lagged behind the 18.9% return for the S&P 500. Mosaic Co. (MOS), a fertilizer company, hurt the results, suffering a loss of nearly 30%. Seadrill Ltd. (SDRL) was the best performer with a 57% return.
Disclosure: I don’t currently own the stocks mentioned today, personally or for clients.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Sane Portfolio Drives In for its Annual Tune-Up
Posted: August 10, 2026
August 3, 2026 — (Maple Hill Syndicate) – If you consider yourself a medium-risk or slightly conservative investor, you may want to take a look at my Sane Portfolio.
It’s a hypothetical stock portfolio that I refresh each year. Today is the day for its annual tune-up.
The Sane Portfolio contains a dozen stocks. To get in, a stock must meet seven criteria. Once I choose a stock, it stays in unless it flunks one of the seven.
This year, only three of last year’s dozen stocks made it back.
Seven Checkpoints
To be eligible, a stock must satisfy seven criteria. No single criterion is especially hard, but few companies can jump all seven hurdles.
- Market value of at least $1 billion.
- Debt less than stockholders’ equity.
- Return on stockholders’ equity of 10% or better.
- Stock price less than 18 times per-share earnings.
- Stock price less than 3 times per-share sales.
- Stock price less than 3 times book value (corporate net worth per share).
- Five-year earnings growth averaging 5% per year or better.
They’re Back
The portfolio’s longest tenure belongs to D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), the largest U.S. homebuilder. It’s back for a seventh year, despite 6% to 7% mortgage rates that are a headwind for home buyers. Horton’s profits fell, but it still made the cut.
W.R. Berkley Corp. (WRB) returns for a fourth engagement. It’s a casualty insurance company based in Greenwich, Connecticut. Its return on equity was nearly 20% in the past four quarters.
Back for a third year is Photronics Inc. (PLAB), which makes photomasks used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photronics shares rose 48% in the past year. Even after that climb, the stock sells for only 11 times trailing earnings.
New Selections
Nine companies dropped out, giving me a bunch of spots to fill.
Start with Walt Disney Co. (DIS). I’ve always liked the synergy between Disney’s movies, theme parks and toys. And I have a higher opinion than most people of the ABC and ESPN television operations.
Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. (PPC) is the second-largest U.S. chicken producer (after Tyson Foods). There’s a long-term trend for people to eat more chicken. The company has exceeded a 15% return on equity in 10 of the past 15 years.
Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) is a brokerage and investment management company. Years ago, at The Wall Street Journal, I created a ranking of the performance of brokerage-house recommended lists. Raymond James usually did well in that. Profitability looks strong, with an 18% return on equity.
Unloved and Cheap
Selling for only eight times earnings, Synchrony Financial (SYF) runs credit cards for Amazon, Sam’s Club and more than 100 other companies. The big risk is a recession, but (contrary to my earlier prediction) a recession doesn’t seem likely soon.
Also cheap is Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (PBH), which makes over-the-counter health products such as Clear Eyes, Dramamine, Monistat and Summer’s Eve. Wall Street pays little attention to this stock, which trades at 13 times earnings.
Lear Corp. (LEA) makes car seats and electrical systems for many car manufacturers. To me, Lear looks attractively cheap on all three measures I usually use (price/earnings, price/sales and price/book value).
Completing the Roster
I like to have an energy company in the portfolio. Halliburton Co. (HAL) is one of the largest U.S. oil service companies. During the Iran war, the U.S. and other countries have depleted much of their petroleum reserves. Hence, I expect more drilling.
I also like the defense industry, but most defense stocks are too expensive for the Sane Portfolio. Textron Inc. (TXT) is a conglomerate that is partially a defense firm, owning Bell Helicopter.
A longtime favorite of mine is Oshkosh Corp. (OSK), which makes fire engines, garbage trucks, troop carriers, mail trucks and aerial lift platforms. Its balance sheet is strong, with not much debt and lots of cash.
Performance
Today’s version is the 25th annual iteration of the Sane Portfolio. Returns have averaged 11.7% in twelve months, a bit better than the 11.2% average for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.
My Sane Portfolio picks have been profitable 19 times out of 24, and beaten the index 13 times.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Last year’s Sane Portfolio returned 23.8%, versus 18.9% for the S&P 500. The best performer was Axcelis Technologies Inc. (ACLS), up 76%. The worst was Boise Cascade Co. (BCC), down 8%.
Disclosure: I own Disney and Pilgrim’s Pride for most of my clients, and Oshkosh in a hedge fun I run. One or more of my firm’s clients own Halliburton and Textron.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Valero and Target Look Good on The Price/Sales Ratio
Posted: July 28, 2026
July 27, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Investors care about profits, not so much about sales. Maybe they should pay a little more attention to sales.
Two reasons:
- It’s difficult for a business to achieve profit growth unless sales are growing.
- Sales are more difficult to manipulate than profits are.
If you want to check the ratio of a stock’s price to its earnings, you use the familiar price/earnings ratio, or P/E.
Less popular, but also revealing, is the price/sales ratio, or P/S. It’s the stock price divided by sales per share.
Once a year, I write about stocks selling for attractive price-to-sales ratios. The results to date have been quite good.
Here are five stocks that look like bargains to me now, based on their P/S ratios. Each of these stocks trades for less than 1.0 times sales, some for much less.
Valero
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) is a refiner, producing gasoline and home heating oil. Valero refines oil but — unlike big integrated companies such as Exxon Mobil or Chevron — doesn’t produce it. For Valero, oil is a raw-material cost.
That’s one reason why half the analysts who follow Valero (11 out of 22) don’t recommend the stock now. But the fact remains that Valero can get a good price at the pump for its gasoline. And you never know how the winter will go for home heating oil.
Valero stock sells for 0.74 times sales.
Target
Target Corp. (TGT) shares have lost 47% of their value in the past five years. The store has become less trendy, and the company has been whiplashed by disputes over its social and political stance.
At some points, Target supported the gay pride movement, and diversity efforts. That made conservatives mad. But it backed down from those stances, making progressives mad. Can’t win.
Critics, including Fortune magazine, say that Target should have made an outsider its chief executive instead of Michael Fiddelke, a longtime Target veteran. But Fiddelke has a turnaround plan (including remodeling more than 100 stores) and so far, customer traffic has turned up a bit.
The stock languishes at 0.59 times sales.
Andersons
Andersons Inc. (ANDE), with headquarters in Maumee, Ohio, specializes in buying, storing, moving, and selling grain and other agricultural products. Its after-tax profit margin is skimpy, recently 1.17%. Because of those thin margins, it always sells for a low P/S ratio.
Right now, the ratio is 0.24. Only four Wall-Street analysts bother to follow this mid-sized company. All four recommend it.
Macy’s
Department stores are out of fashion, and Macy’s Inc. (M) stock sells for 35% less than it did a decade ago. The P/S ratio is 0.28.
Wall Street hates this stock. Fourteen analysts cover it, but only three of them recommend it.
But is Macy’s really so bad? It has posted a profit in 14 of the past 15 years. One measure of profitability is return on equity. I consider a 15% return on equity good, and 20% excellent. Macy’s has hit the good range in 10 of the past 15 years, and excellent in eight of them.
Jones Lang
The Covid-19 epidemic knocked the stuffing out of the real-estate industry, as office space suddenly was rendered superfluous. That situation is changing, but slowly.
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. (JLL) is a leading commercial real estate agent and service provider. Its stock is changing hands at 0.59 times sales. Shares are down about 3% this year but up 24% in the past twelve months.
Jones Lang’s sales jumped more than 11% in the past four quarters. Yet the stock’s price/sales ratio is only 0.59.
I also recommended this stock a year ago.
Performance
Before today, I’ve written 23 columns about stocks with low price/sales ratio. The average 12-month gain on my recommendations has been 29.6%.
By comparison, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index has averaged 10.8%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
I’ve beaten the S&P in this series only 13 times out of 23. But the margin of victory was large for the columns I wrote in 2000, 2002 and 2014.
It was also large in the past year. My picks rose 64.4%, versus 20.5% for the index. Flex Ltd. (FLEX), a contract electronics manufacturer, contributed a 139% return. CVS Health Corp. (CVS) chipped in 86%.
Archer-Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) returned 64%, Jones Lang LaSalle 28% and Mission Produce Inc. (AVO) 5%.
Disclosure: I don’t currently own the stocks mentioned today, personally or for clients. One or more clients own Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
An Annotated Collection of Stock-Market Sayings
Posted: July 28, 2026
July 20, 2026 — (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Some famous stock market sayings, with a little gloss.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. – Warren Buffett.
In the midst of the Great Recession of October 2007 to March 2009, Buffett published an op-ed piece in the New York Times. “Fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors,” he wrote. “But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense.”
The essay was called, “Buy American. I Am.”
Conversely, Buffett warned of market excess in 1999, at the height of the dot.com boom. The stock of his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), suffered for it. But a three-year bear market started in March 2000.
In my opinion, most investors today are greedy, and wise investors should be cautious. Berkshire Hathaway, where Buffett recently retired as CEO, is holding a cash hoard of about $58 billion.
Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate correction, than lost in the corrections themselves. – Peter Lynch.
I’ve been guilty on this one. In my 26-year career as an investment manager, I’ve raised cash to more than 10% of my clients’ portfolios four times. The most recent was when President Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs. My decision backfired, as the market rallied after a short drop.
The only time I was clearly right to get defensive was in the early days of the Great Recession.
You need to do two things to be successful in stock investing. You have to have a view different from the majority, and you have to be right. – Michael Steinhardt
Either half of Steinhardt’s equation is not too difficult. It’s getting both parts that’s hard. To me, one lesson is not to be making dozens of bets, but to pick your spots.
The idea that a bell rings to signal when to get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly fifty years in this business, I don’t know anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. – Jack Bogle
Yes, market timing is a chimera wrapped in a miasma wrapped in an unsolvable riddle.
In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighing machine. – Benjamin Graham
In other words, stock prices eventually follow profits. But in the short run, sentiment-driven trading can produce irrational run-ups in hot groups.
In the early 2000s, investors piled into dot.com stocks that (unlike today’s tech giants) had no earnings. In some cases, they valued the stocks based on the number of clicks their web sites generated.
There have been fads for auto stocks, radio stocks, bowling stocks, oil stocks, the Nifty Fifty in the 1970s and the Magnificent Seven in the past two years. In some cases, the companies did well but the stocks faded. In some cases, the companies disappeared.
It is not a case of choosing those faces that, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. – Lord John Maynard Keynes
I disagree a bit with Lord Keynes. If you try to predict what stocks the crowd will love, you have two chances to lose. You could predict wrong. Or you could predict right, and the crowd could be wrong.
October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. – Mark Twain
Twain knew this from personal experience. He lost a fortune in the stock market. Luckily, he made enough from his books and speaking engagements to live a pretty rich lifestyle for much of his life.
It will fluctuate. – J.P. Morgan
This is what the great financier J.P. Morgan (allegedly) said when asked what the stock market will do. Since the quote first appeared years after his death, we’re not sure if he really said it. But the wry sense of humor does seem authentic.
Buy on the sound of cannons. Sell on the sound of trumpets. – Baron Nathan Mayer Rothschild
Here again, we’re not sure whether the baron really made this remark, widely attributed to him. But there’s great wisdom in it. On reflection, it’s really the same advice as in the Warren Buffett quotation above.
Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it. – Will Rogers
Enough said.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Hartford and Amdocs Join the Perfect 10 Portfolio
Posted: July 14, 2026
July 13, 2026 — (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Does anyone call a beautiful woman a perfect 10 anymore?
Probably not, but my Perfect 10 Portfolio lives on.
It’s an annual list of 10 stocks, each of which sells for 10 times earnings – no more, no less.
These are cheap stocks. The average price/earnings multiple these days is about 24, and the long-term average is somewhere around 15.
Cheap doesn’t mean bad. Companies for which investors have low expectations have an opportunity to produce pleasant surprises. Out-of-favor stocks don’t need much good news to nudge them upward.
Here are the stocks that grace my 24th annual Perfect 10 Portfolio.
Food Chain
Three of my new selections center on the U.S. food chain.
A major producer of nitrogen for fertilizer, CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) is based in Northbrook, Illinois. Nitrogen is usually produced from natural gas, and natural-gas prices have been pleasantly low in recent years. The worldwide fertilizer shortage caused by the Iran war has increased CF’s profits.
Known until 2012 as Corn Products International, Ingredion Inc. (INGR) of Westchester, Illinois, provides ingredients to the food, beverage and animal-feed industries. The stock was smashed in the past 12 months (down 27%) and most analysts have given up on it. In my view, the recent decline was overdone.
A leading producer of hogs and pork products, Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) has a skimpy following on Wall Street. Only six analysts follow it; five of them recommend it. The stock has been a poor performer, but I think it will pep up. The dividend yield is attractive, north of 4%.
Financials
Several banks had the requisite price/earnings ratio of 10. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp. (FMCB), based in Lodi, California, has very little debt and nice profitability. I like to see banks earn 1.0% or more on assets. This bank has done it in 14 of the past 15 years (and just missed in 2017).
Another bank I like is West Coast Community Bancorp (WCCB), based in Santa Cruz, California. It’s a small company that does a lot of small-business and agricultural lending.
Over the past ten years, shares of Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) have quietly tripled. Two investment managers I respect, Jeremy Grantham and Joel Greenblatt, added to their holdings of Hartford in the first quarter. Profitability is strong, with a 22% return on equity recently.
This and That
My other four selections are in a polyglot of various industries.
Amdocs Ltd. (DOX), with headquarters in Saint Louis, Missouri, provides software and services to communications, media and financial companies. Among its big customers are T-Mobile, AT&T, and Vodafone. Sales barely budged in the past four quarters, but earnings were up more than 11%.
Buckle Inc. (BKE), which hails from Kearney, Nebraska, makes casual clothes, footwear and accessories. In the past five years, it has grown its earnings more than 13% a year. Investors know that the fashion industry is fickle, and they worry because Buckle relies mainly on mall stores (not e-commerce).
Small appliances are the specialty at Hamilton Beach Brands Holdings Co. (HBB) of Glen Allen, Virginia. There’s no visible sales or earnings growth here; it’s a mature business. Nonetheless, the company has managed to crank out a profit in nine of the past ten years.
Speculative but interesting is Vox Royalty Corp. (VOXR) of Westminster, Colorado. It acquires partial interests in mines. Traditionally it concentrated on gold, but lately is getting more involved in copper. It likes to take stakes in mines that are three to five years away from production.
Performance
I’ve compiled 23 Perfect 10 Portfolios over the years, and the average one-year return has been 18.4%. That compares well with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index, at 11.5%%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
My Perfect 10 Portfolio from a year ago returned 22.9%, just edging out the S&P 500 Total Return at 22.3%.
My choices in this series have been profitable 19 times out of 23, and beaten the index 13 times.
The best performers from last year’s batch were Halliburton Co. (HAL), up 59.8% and Bunge Global SA (BG), up 56.8%. The worst were Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP), down 17.4% and Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO), down 8.4%.
One member of last year’s Perfect 10 was acquired. HNI Corp. purchased Steelcase Inc., at a gain of 52.7%.
Disclosure: Some of my firm’s clients own Halliburton and Ingredion.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
Devon Energy and Smithfield Foods Hit the Casualty List
Posted: July 07, 2026
July 6, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – The stock market roared ahead 15% in the second quarter, but some stocks missed the party.
How about some cake and punch for Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)? It fell 17% in the quarter, but I think it deserves a better fate. I feel the same way about four other stocks profiled below.
At the end of each quarter, I compile a Casualty List of stocks that were beaten up in the three preceding months, and that I think have a lot of comeback potential.
Here are my latest Casualty List recommendations, along with the list’s track record.
Devon Energy
Devon Energy, based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, produces oil and natural gas in several regions of the U.S. Energy stocks did poorly in the quarter, as a cease-fire in the war between the U.S. and Iran caused oil prices to drop.
I remain positive on the energy group. The Middle East is always trouble-prone, and I think lingering uncertainty will keep the price of oil above $80 a barrel for most of the next few years. (It’s at $69 at this writing.)
About 58% of Devon’s production is natural gas or natural gas liquids. I believe that natural gas will continue its recent growth in energy market share, at the expense of coal and oil.
Devon shares sell for only seven times recent earnings – a bargain in my book.
Smithfield Foods
Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD), based in Smithfield, Virginia, raises hogs, sells fresh pork, and sells packaged food products such as hot dogs, ham and bacon. This has never been an easy business. For example, the company has been criticized — and sued — over its waste-disposal practices.
A newer challenge is the tariff wars. Smithfield exports products, including pig heads, hearts and stomachs, to China. Trade friction has escalated under President Trump.
Despite the challenges, Smithfield has shown a profit in each of the past ten years. The stock, down 11% in the second quarter, sells for just under 10 times earnings.
Photronics
As semiconductor chips and their components become ever smaller, the process of making them becomes even more demanding. I believe that Photronics Inc. (PLAB), which makes photomasks used in chip manufacture, is well positioned to benefit.
Photronics, based in Brookfield, Connecticut, is debt free. And its stock — thrown for a 19% loss in the second-quarter tech stock correction — sells for less than 14 times earnings. Earnings growth ground to a halt in the past four quarters, but has averaged more than 30% over the past five years.
Insteel
Insteel Industries Inc. (IIIN) makes steel bars and mesh used to reinforced concrete structures such as bridges and tunnels. The U.S. is in the process of (slowly) upgrading its infrastructure, and I expect that trend to continue.
In the past four quarters, Insteel’s sales jumped more than 20%, and earnings about 81%. Yet the stock fell 10% in the second quarter, when first-quarter earnings (announced in April) disappointed investors.
This small-capitalization stock, barely noticed by Wall Street, sells for about 14 times earnings.
GigaCloud
From Monte, California, comes GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT), which is an online shopping and shipping platform for businesses dealing with large-parcel merchandise. In the second quarter, its stock fell 30% amid a broad correction in technology stocks.
GigaCloud’s profit margins have shrunk a bit lately. Nonetheless, its net profit margin has remained above 10%, and its return on equity has been running at 32% lately.
The stock is selling for about $33 a share, and the few analysts who cover it expect it to be at $40 to $73 within a year (mean estimate $53).
Performance
This is the 93rd Casualty List I’ve compiled, from June 2000 to the present. One-year returns can be calculated for 89 lists.
The average return on my Casualty List recommendations has been 16.1%, beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index, which averaged 12.0%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Fifty-seven of the 89 sets of recommendations have been profitable, but only 42 have beaten the index.
My list from a year ago was one of the more successful ones, racking up a 47.3% return, with gains of 105% in Centene corp. (CNC) and 102% in Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP). Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) returned a feeble 3.6%, while Sylvamo Corp. (SLVM) lost 22%.
Disclosure: I currently have no positions, personally or for clients, in the stocks discussed in today’s column.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts. He or his clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
The Anatomy of an Investment Scam
Posted: July 01, 2026
June 29, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – BrokerListings.com, a British company, recently published a list of ten signs of an investment scam.
I like the list, and also the study of which it was a part. BrokerListings.com started by finding what they considered an egregious scam. Then they reported it to six regulatory bodies in five countries – the U.S., United Kingdom, Singapore, Cyprus and Australia.
The reports were made simultaneously, and the organization rated the regulators based on how quickly and thoroughly they responded.
I’m happy to say that the best overall response was from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. But what intrigued me more was the ten-part warning list.
The alleged scam was an investment program offered by Wealth Invest Corp., operating as Winvest.com. The company calls itself a “next generation AI-powered Bitcoin investment platform.” It shouldn’t be confused with some other companies that have similar names.
Here are the ten red flags that caused BrokerListings.com to regard it as a scam.
Flag 1 — Flamboyant Return Claims
Winvest advertised a fixed 3% daily return, or 180% in 60 days. If a normal investment-management firm (such as mine) made such a claim, state or federal regulators would be down our throats in no time.
Remember the Bernie Madoff scandal that exploded in 2008? Madoff claimed that he could make 10% to 15% per year. That was certainly an achievable return in any given year. It was the uncanny consistency of Madoff’s returns that were suspicious. Madoff’s program turned out to be a $65 billion Ponzi scheme.
When Madoff was riding high, a few people said to me (two of them in almost precisely these words), “Why don’t you guys have nice smooth returns like Madoff?” Now they know.
The phrase “guaranteed daily profits” could be a red flag all by itself. Registered investment advisors in the U.S. aren’t allowed to guarantee or promise any particular return.
Flag 2 — $105 billion, really?
Winvest claimed that it had processed $105,761,663,274 in withdrawals for investors. That $105 billion figure is suspect on its face. “If that figure were true,” the study’s authors wrote, Winvest would be one of the largest financial platforms on the planet – larger than most sovereign wealth funds.”
And yet, noted the authors, “there is zero mention of Winvest in any mainstream financial publication – Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times (or) Reuters.”
Flag 3 — Urgency
The investment opportunity offered by Winvest was available only for a limited time. The study’s authors called this a “textbook urgency tactic.”
Personally, I didn’t think the Winvest pitch was so bad in this regard. But in general, I find urgency tactics annoying. If someone tells me I must do something by a certain deadline, my sales resistance goes up.
Flag 4 — Bitcoin only
According to BrokerListings.com Winvest doesn’t accept wire transfers, ACH payments or standard banking deposits in dollars. It accepts only Bitcoin.
The study’s authors commented, “Bitcoin transactions are effectively irreversible and extremely difficult to trace once funds move through multiple wallets.”
Flag 5 — Seeded reviews
Reviews of Winvest from consumers seem to follow a template with certain phrases repeated, such as “best financial decision I’ve ever made,” and “life-changing website.”
Flag 6 — Ten million users?
Although Winvest claims to have more than 10 million users on its platform, it is hardly mentioned in widely used financial forums, or in business-news publications, or regulatory filings.
Flag 7 – Not registered
BrokerListing.com checked in several places and concluded that Invest.com and Wealth Invest Corp. are not registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission or with “any recognized financial authority.”
Flag 8 — Comments off
Winvest posts testimonials on You Tube. But BrokerListings.com found the comments features was disabled. “On any legitimate platform,” the organization wrote, such videos “attract organic comments – questions, skepticism, follow-ups, competing experiences.”
Flag 9 — Confusion
In researching Winvest, BrokerListings.com said, it found two different years for its founding, and three different locations for its corporate headquarters. It believes the owner is Longo Ella Bursatil SA, in Argentina.
Flag 10 — Dangling logos
The Winvest website listed displayed the logos of several well-known companies, such as Coinbase, Kraken and Robinhood. BrokerListings.com checked the official partners lists of some of the organizations whose logos were displayed. They didn’t list Winvest as a partner.
I was unable to reach Winvest.com for comment. I couldn’t find a phone number, and an email sent on June 27 wasn’t immediately answered.
You may never encounter Winvest.com — and I hope you don’t. But you’re likely to run into “opportunities” that have one or several of the ten red flags discussed here. Be very cautious. There are plenty of legitimate investments. You don’t have to fall for one with red flags flying.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.
I Recommend a Quintet of Mid-cap Stocks
Posted: June 23, 2026
June 22, 2026 (Maple Hill Syndicate) – Many investors – either purposely or by default — peg their fortunes to large-capitalization stocks. Either they invest in an index fund, or the stocks they hold are all members of the Standard & Poor’s 500.
That’s their privilege. But if you want your portfolio to perform differently (and perhaps better) than your neighbor’s, consider increasing your holdings of mid-capitalization stocks.
I’ve always been partial to mid-cap stocks, because they are less intensely followed by Wall Street analysts than the biggest companies are. Therefore, I figure, there’s a greater chance of finding a bargain.
For the same reason, I like small-capitalization stocks, but they tend to be riskier than mid-caps.
For the most part, big-cap stocks have ruled the roost in the past five years. But mid-caps beat big-caps last year. And this year through June 19, mid-caps are up 15.4%, versus 10.2% for the large-caps.
Here are five new mid-cap recommendations.
Dillard’s
People think of department stores as a buggy-whip industry, doomed by specialty stores and Internet retailing. Yet Dillard’s Inc. (DDS), a department-store chain based in Little Rock, Arkansas, has appreciated 37% in the past year, 243% in the past five years, and 833% over the past decade.
The stock sells for 13 times earnings, which I consider an attractive multiple, especially in today’s pricey market. Dillard’s has shown a profit in nine of the past 10 years, the exception being the fiscal year ended in January 2021, which was crippled by the pandemic.
Matson
Matson Inc. (MATX) Matson, is a Hawaii-based ocean shipper that dominates ports in Hawaii and Alaska. I sold my shares when President Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs in April 2025. In hindsight, that was a mistake. Its stock is up 71% in the past year and 478% in the past ten years.
Its return on equity has been at least 15% (the level that I consider good) most years, and considerably higher in some years. The stock is priced attractively, in my opinion, at 14 times earnings.
Cullen/Frost Bankers
Texan, through and through. Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. (CFR) is based in San Antonio, Texas, and does about almost all of its business in the Lone Star State. But it’s not too dependent on the energy industry, the business for which Texas is best known.
Consistency? Cullen/Frost has it in spades. It has shown a profit every year since its founding in 1868. That means it weathered the Depression, the Great Recession, and the pandemic without ever dipping into red ink.
National Fuel
Based in Williamsville, New York, National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG)is active in all three phases of the natural-gas industry. It explores for and produces natural gas. It operates some 2,600 miles of pipelines. And it operates a utility company (National Fuel) in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.
Over the past five years, National Fuel Gas has increased its corporate net worth by about 12% a year. That’s better than International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and slightly better than Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM). National Fuel is cheaper than either, selling for about 10 times earnings.
Oshkosh
Fire engines, military trucks and lift platforms are some of the major products at Oshkosh Corp. (OSK), which is based in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. It has grown its sales at an annual clip of 11% the past five years, and earnings at a 22% pace.
Last year, however, was disappointing. Revenue grew less than 2% and earnings fell almost 10%. I might have an emotional attachment to this stock, as I made a lot of money in it early in my career. But it looks good to me at 13 times analysts’ estimate for the next four quarters’ earnings.
Performance
Mid-cap recommendations are sprinkled into my columns from time to time. But I’ve written only two previous columns specifically about mid-caps. The average 12-month gain on these recommendations has been 26.2%.
That’s considerably above the average on the Standard & Poor’s 400 Midcap Total Return Index, which has been 16.6%. It also beats the return on the large-cap Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index, which weighed in at 21.0%.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
My last set of mid-cap recommendations scored a 35.3% return, handily beating the rival indices. The best performer was Seadrill Ltd. (SDRL), up 82%. The worst was Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH), down 10.5%.
Disclosure: I own Cullen/Frost personally and for some clients. I own Meritage for most clients, but am considering whether to keep or sell it.
John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments in Boston, Massachusetts. His firm or clients may own or trade the stocks discussed here. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com.